DISQUS

VentureBeat: 2008 predictions from a VC: Android will succeed…

  • Finnsense · 2 years ago
    I have to disagree with point number 1. The iPhone is a much smaller deal than people in the US seem to think. Globally, Apple have sold half the number of iPhones than Nokia sold of the N95 since Summer - and half the poeple I know have a smartphone other than the N95 and are tied in for at least another year. Further, the iPhone has been a relative flop in the UK.

    Nokia already have phones coming with all the features of the iPhone and more. Plus you are never tied to a carrier with Nokia and contrary to what you say, Nokia phones use the S40 or S60 platforms which are easy to develop for and actually exist.
  • Uday Subbarayan · 2 years ago
    I doubt whether Google's Android will succeed!

    I am reposting the comment, i made earlier here:
    http://1vc.typepad.com/soaring_on_ridgelift/200...

    Android: It's a chicken & egg problem. Google needs lot's of developers to get more devices & developers needs more devices to develop applications!

    So, which one will Google will go after?

    As as an entrepreneur/engineer, why should I bother about Android now, when there is NO Android device in the consumers hand? J2ME is fine for me!

    From the device manufacturer perspective, why should they promote someone else platform, if it competes with their own and more over no developer community?
    ----------xxx-------------------
    I love to hear from the community, why i should develop apps for Android "now"?
  • BK · 2 years ago
    Uday,
    I'll give a longer answer to the questions once more comments come, but if you are wondering why you should develop apss for Android, how about the $10M prize?

    Re: the manufacturer...what if this was a way to enable a manufacturer who didn't build cell phones before?

    It's all about enabling.
  • jeremy liew · 2 years ago
    Baris,

    Thanks for the eduction! ;-)

    Cheers

    J
  • Stefan Constantinescu · 2 years ago
    "By this, I mean handsets will become more like PC’s and wireless carriers will become more like landline DSL providers. This is a bold statement because both handset makers (like Nokia) and carriers (like Vodafone) don’t want this to happen."

    Ummm ... what? Nokia would like nothing more than to stop bending over backwards to the operators around the world and just sell their devices like people buy computers today. You must be unaware of their unlock campaign in NYC and how people who aren't living in America are buying their mobile phones.

    Just because the iPhone woke up the American wireless market doesn't mean the rest of the world was asleep. Go to any phone shop in the EU and be shocked by how many models you can choose from versus a single kiosk that has a handful of models an operator subsides.
  • Yuri Ammosov · 2 years ago
    BK: it is not $10M. It is only $10000 if Google notices you, $100 000 if Google feels nice about you and $275 000 if someone at Google loves you.

    Do YOU think you should spend you breakfast money to write an android app if all you plan to get is $275 k?
  • Yuri Ammosov · 2 years ago
    Stephan: it must also be added that locked phones are a staple of US market, too. In France, for example, all phones MUST be sold unlocked; and in Russia, there were never any locked phones at all - locals simply won't buy them.
  • Uday Subbarayan · 2 years ago
    Baris,
    "how about the $10M prize?"
    This is just (marketing)gimmicks! The previous poster has the details. It doesn't interest me.

    1)if a technology needs $ to attract developers, then there is a problem. what customer problem, i can solve with Android, when there is no customer!

    2)regarding manufacturer:
    I agree in theory but in reality, we know how hard it will be for an another new phone company!(big company or a startup)

    Though i sound negative, i wish Android succeeds(for all the good reasons) but not sure, how.
  • Sanjay Vijayakumar · 2 years ago
    Hey - Pretty Interesting predictions and even more interesting comments too. Seems like the mobile scene at different ends of the spectrum in various parts of the world.

    Some random thoughts from India where the scene is a bit different. Market Scene, Music Industry, Gaming and Social Networking are commented on personal experience.

    Land of the unlocked - from IPhones to Nokia's - the concept of being tied to a carrier does exist very partially with two operators of the total 7 opting for locked phones "without" SIMS. These guys are on CDMA while the remaining five are GSM and control 80% of the total market.

    With 8M+ new users per month, India creates unique situations that one really cant predict what will work here. Lowest ARPU's in the world at sub 8$, 25 states with 1600 Languages, a country that is so vivid in religion, culture, food and climate - that it is literally like 25 Countries put together.

    Consider this.

    1. There are 200M+ mobile phones against 3M Broadband Connections. ( The gap is predicted to become 500M and 20M by 2010)

    2. Atleast 200M people will use the Internet for the first time in their lives through a Mobile Phone in India. So prolly, we might do mobile transactions in a small screen as many havent seen a Computer, save an ECommerce Transaction

    In such a dynamic market, there is not a single mobile application that has mass usage. This can be attributed to the numerous handsets under the sun - and yes, they are all not Series 60 and Nokias.

    Iphones work without a glitch out here but after using one for two months, i have realized that its more of a cool phone than a useful phone. That might be due to various reasons like high sms usage, high voice usage ( phone heats up big time )and the data rates being pretty high over here - 2.5$ per MB.

    Social Networking also seems not to really take off simply because there arent that many broadband users ( that's when compared to the mobile users :-)

    Assume i click a photo with my camera phone - i will never find a PC besides me to transfer it. Even if i find a PC, it wont have internet and if its my lucky day and has internet - it still wont be broadband. But yet 1 in 5 Indians have a mobile phone while 1 in 350 have a broadband connection. Buy 2010, 1 in 3 will have a mobile phone.

    Thus User Generated Content will take off in India pretty much like MCommerce once the platforms to share Mobile Content over Social Networks come into picture where Internet is just a part of the scene. Internet can exist, but is not really a necessity to share content.

    Gaming pretty much happens a lot in India over mobile phones but we are the land of Pirates too so no revenue opportunity in the near term.

    Mobile Music Industry has over taken conventional music over here and there are three things that work in India - ABC

    Astrology, Bollywood and Cricket.

    The Mobile Music Rights and DRM literally are very confusing terms out here in India and scene would pretty much be the same for another year.:-)

    The Author is Co-founder and CEO of MobME - Mobile Media and Entertainment - rated as one of India's 100 Innovative Startups and the youngest company amongst 100 Indian IT Innovators for 2007 alongside HP,TI,Rueters. :-)
  • Lisa Peters · 1 year ago
    They're giving away a cash prize at Internet Evolution for web predictions.
  • Bob · 1 year ago
    ...".At the risk of educating my competitors, here are my technology predictions for 2008".

    This was the funniest line. What you forgot to say is that entrepreneurs are educating you. I always find it interesting when pitching VC's how they sit back and get educated and then turn it around as if they are visionaries. Give me a break!
  • Bob · 1 year ago
    Sanjay, Excellent post! Clearly you understand the barriers in India.
  • Certified Internet Marketer · 1 year ago
    Well I think that's pretty interesting! Anyone else?

    _________________________
    http://CertifiedInternetMarketer.com
  • Max · 1 year ago
    VentureBeat thanks for this post!
  • Deah Mave · 1 year ago
    I have my doubt about Android - like a lot of Google innovations this will also disappear.
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