DISQUS

Eric Schlissel · 10 months ago

2009 is the year that half of the web becomes a Facebook App and content providers sell out their members in a desperate grab for advertising money.

Instead of simply opening access to the FB platform, FB has turned the tables and is giving everyone the tools to embed FB everywhere. Starting with their Comments Box release today, I believe we will soon see Rate This (or Like This (hello Digg and FriendFeed!)) and Share This boxes using FB Connect. Open source developers will quickly mold these into plugins for Drupal, Wordpress and countless other platforms, making them easily available and accessible to a large array of content producers. Bonus points if FB adds a Commerce box, however I believe FB will stick to its knitting and keep commerce internal (gifts, etc.).

How do these widgets create actual revenue? The FB ad serving engine. What good are ads on websites without demographic data to target them, and tracking data to measure performance? FB will give you this, and Google still can not. Think of it as the Son of Beacon for the Internet at large.

Everyone says “advertising dollars dry up in a down economy.” However, I disagree. It’s true that blind and shot-gun approach (dumb) advertising is not defensible to the bean counters. However, highly targeted advertising with crystal clear results will do just fine in the rough year ahead. Give the bean counters some demonstrable ROI, and they’ll open up their checkbooks. Give site owners sticky features that users love, and a way to make more money and they’ll open up their databases. At the center of this lovefest is Facebook and your profile. Feels a little dirty, right?

While the “App sites” may still not be able to make a living on advertising, and ad revenue-based business models will likely fail, FB itself will do very well, and will present site owners and entrepreneurs with a very compelling case to get hitched. Expect strange bedfellows. Expect large transactions. Also expect more privacy issues.

Oh, and newspapers will continue their death spiral. Yawn. What’s that? The New York Times is a Facebook Connect partner? How about that.

And, I signed into this site using Facebook Connect.

elliottdahan · 10 months ago

In 2009 I fear you will see some venture capital firms becoming "gatekeepers" of which technologies/companies survive and which die.

Deepak Das · 10 months ago

My prediction for a 2009 technology trend is that the existing consensus view that large network effects that have long been perceived as a platform for monetization will fail. Reality will set in that applications with a focus on relevance, context and trust are keys to the success of social applications. The mobile address book as a gateway to this information will be a key development this year. This will be further reinforced by new marketing models that will be grounded in leveraging these trusted “social connections”

Brian Liu · 10 months ago

One big technology trend in the near future is augmentation of both reality and internet (particularly that of the latter). With advances toward semantic web and the wide-release of APIs from many services, adding/removing/restructuring of individual pages, media, and user interaction. Specifically, I believe this will occur in the form of overlays (ShiftSpace), direct editing (HTML5, Shutterborg) and web annotation (Diigo, Thiblo). Physically, this also translates to augmented reality (Tonchidot's Sekai Camera).

Brandon Bidlack · 10 months ago

I think you'll begin to see real friction occurring at the edges of different company's APIs. So many tech companies have developed APIs to access and utilize their data in new and interesting ways that the market for an "API switchboard" will kick into high gear. APIs themselves don't get anything done by themselves...someone's gotta connect it all together.

John · 10 months ago

Productivity 2.0: MeetingWave helps members arrange face-to-face meetings with new people for business or social purposes. By focusing on offline networking, MeetingWave provides rich and targeted opportunities for businesses and individuals looking to drive online and offline sales and business development. We think the site is particularly useful for anyone looking for targeted opportunities for business networking including new clients or new job opportunities. Never drink or dine alone again (unless you want to).

Brett · 10 months ago

Cost cutting, productivity enhancing, and secondarily, green technologies will play well in 2009 given the world economy is transitioning from the R word to the D word. Virtualization technologies from Citrix and VMWare allow companies to scale back their hardware footprint, distribute their workforce, reach their customers in new ways and enable access to resources anywhere, anytime; with less energy needed to power your business and fewer commute days sitting in traffic, the green aspect is a nice side effect.

Mark Landay · 10 months ago

I see the technology trends that will reshape the future being alternative energy and nano technology.

David Murphy · 10 months ago

This is the year social media sites will be leveraged for their e-commerce value. New Facebook apps and Twitter services will create a new trend of "social shopping" AKA e-Commerce 2.0.

Facebook apps will let you easily buy birthday gifts for friends, services using the Twitter API and Facebook Connect will help spread the popularity of hot products like wildfire through online newsfeeds.

The value add?

Matching what recipients what & what gift buyers buy.

An online equivalent to the "joy of shopping" women only get by shopping with their girlfriends -- with eCommerce 2.0, they can instantly brag to their friends what a great deal they got on sale.

Is the middle of a recession really time for an eCommerce revolution? Absolutely -- for one thing, it's in social networking sites' interest to find a non-advertising route to monetization. And word of mouth from friends has always been a huge driver for retail sales -- something struggling eCommerce retailers will love to leverage.

Time for eCommerce 2.0. Who's with me?

(PS: I'm biased, as we have a top secret Facebook app under development that will do just this. If you're an Angel/seed funder interested in being involved, don't hesitate to send me a message through Facebook.)

Abodit · 10 months ago

In 2009, home control software will become much more intelligent. By combining disparate systems like alarm panels, online calendars, chat, and cellphone location the home is now able to make smart decisions about its owners' whereabouts and can automatically adjust heating and lighting schedules to suit. My home does this today and my electricity consumption is down 30% from 3 years ago.

kirkwhisler · 10 months ago

In 2009 television as we know it is changing rapidly in two ways: It's moving to the web and production is becoming open to far more than ever before. Video ads on the internet will lead all ad categories in terms of growth. What technologies will prove most effective in conveying video over the net and will small production companies have the ability to juggle technology, audience development and appropriate content issues.

rohun · 10 months ago

In 2009, premium content publishers and cable/sat distributors will have their traditional business models increasingly challenged by "over the top" IP delivery to televisions in consumers homes.

This shift will drive opportunity for innovation by technology companies to power the new ecosystem that will ultimately find the happy medium between "old school" unusable cable VOD and "new school" open IP to the TV (see: Boxee).

The winners will be those who focus on empowering distributors to create value for consumers and advertisers in a way that has meaningful impact on big media's bottom line. The losers will bet against the cable companies.

Andrew · 10 months ago

I think that one thing that we will see in the coming year will be the trend of convergence especially in terms of all the social networks that exist out in the internet. There are so many services like Twitter, Yammer, etc. that essentially provide the same service only with a little bit of a twist. In order for the general masses (and not just the tech-heads) to catch onto these exciting tools, is (unfortunately) to have one player dominate that service. We have seen this with Google (in terms of search) and Facebook (in terms of online social networks). In order for Twitter, Android, and all these other exciting tools to catch on is mass convergence from both the end-user stand-point and the developer community to one unique tool. 2009 will be the year that Many businesses will finally turn to Twitter as a marketing tool in droves. People will all use Google Sync to store their calendars and address books. Many start-ups will see their cash reserves die out as the financial markets are unable to support no-revenue companies. And we will see emergence of dominant players in many fields that have become saturated with too many services.

Ray · 10 months ago

I think that genetics/cloning will be the technology trend that is most likely to gain the most momentum and promote the most change over the next few years. If we look at how rapidly this industry is making advances, we'll see that it is simply only a matter of time before teams working on conquering genetic maladies and disease are able to do so. The cloning of embryonic stem cells alone could even contribute to an arrest of aging when aging is viewed as a disease.

Jon · 10 months ago

I think that the number of people accessing the internet with their smartphones has reached its critical mass, and a number of killer-app mobile services (e.g. Soonr) will appear.

Engago team · 10 months ago

We bring a seamless integration between website (visit data) and CRM and email together for increased productivity of marketing and sales.

ScottF · 10 months ago

Productivity 2.0: How new tools are making people more productive

In 2009 online "multimedia" collaboration will explode and finally become disruptive "for business people" vs. the social networking waves of the last several years. The last decade of stochastic technological advancements and the convergence of all digital communications will launch a disruptive new wave of "visual communications" that will revolutionize the way we communicate both within our companies and with our customers. The "solution components" have already been created and tested in the consumer space, like HD video, but the true Productivity 2.0 (and 3.0) value proposition lies in the business space. Consumers "now" believe that everything should be free ... business people don't. Since all "business people" are actually consumers by evening and weekends, there will be an enormous revolution against the ultra conservative practices of the traditional IT gatekeepers. These revolutionaries have already paved the way with Blackberries and iPhones ... but this is only the beginning of wave after wave of disruptive innovation created from our "at home experiences" with advanced technology like our "custom home entertainment networks" and HD video camcorder phones. The leaders of this revolution will be CEOs, executive leaders, analysts, bloggers, and other "decision makers" at companies of all sizes that will rapidly adopt to these advancements from their own personal experiences at home and "off work".

Why do we operate in business with such primitive "tools" when in our social lives we already actively use productivity 2.0 tools?

And, this is just 2008 ... wait until 2010 and the next several years! We will look back and wonder “how” we ever did truly “productive” business with just heavy laptops, emails, the old generation of cell phones, IMs, voicemails, paper documents and “physical travel”.

Going "to work" WILL actually become exciting again!

scottmunc · 10 months ago

Great post, totally agree. Its already happening.

Brendan · 10 months ago

The walled garden mentality of LARGE publisher's will completely erode. Launching Facebook Connect (a la CNN), Full RSS feeds, social media more deeply integrated into article pages are all trends that stare publishers in the face but are areas they've been slow or completely reluctant to adopt. They need revenue to compensate for print losses and traffic (preferably free traffic) as well as revenue from new sources is a crucial part of getting there.

Keren Dagan · 10 months ago

Marketing and PR departments are in a constant search for new channels to engage with their customers. The recent mass adoption of social media, social networks, and life streaming stages introduce new ways to interact. I think that we will see more applications that will help to monitor these new channels producing useful actionable data for the corporate i.e. leads (one example is a tool for finding influencers). We will see more tools for serving these needs built in the coming year.

tivoboy · 10 months ago

I think that 2009, will be the year where we actually see people TURN AWAY from the web.

Be it users who no longer have access; users who no longer have MONEY to either BUY THINGS, buy trips; or just waste time doing something that is not accretive to their individual balance sheets.

Even as social theories and the proven logic of embracing technology and technologies ability to dramatically increase efficiency and productivity, without capital, time and lastly motivation - people will move away.

Growth will not return till people have some sense of calm and comfort and that will not happen in 2009.

I know, the WEB is the best place to help find a new job or better opportunity. But, I think we will see more DIRECT interactions for most of those who are unemployed and they won't be sitting on the web looking for it.

People will be working HARDER for LESS MONEY, and they won't be spending it on items on the web. And they won't be spending their free time ON THE WEB either.

David Fradin · 10 months ago

By the end of the year, American made batteries with new advanced materials technology will be in mass production. Performance will be several orders of magnitude better than current batteries. This new breakthrough has the potential of creating new battery driven markets, significantly reducing greenhouse gases from outdoor lawn equipment, eventually enabling electric cars and providing an alternative to burning coal.

KrisR · 10 months ago

QR or Quick Recognition codes will be a major trend in 2009. Mobile is emerging as the next platform of choice and QR technology allows for greater interactivity within the surrounding environment. A user can take a photograph of a QR code with their camera phone, the image will then be decoded by software in the phone, which will trigger an action, such as go to a website. QR codes will start to appear in more magazines, on signs, buses, business cards or just about any object that users might need information about. QR allows users to maximize access to information in a quick and efficient manner.

KrisR · 10 months ago

Augmented Reality will resurface in new applications and be a game changing technology in 2009. Augmented reality (AR) is a field of computer research which deals with the combination of real-world and computer-generated data, where computer graphic objects are blended into real footage in real time.Quite simply, this is the future. AR has unlimited potential, the potential to give us virtually anything anywhere. Check out this video clip, it will blow your mind:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6523761...

scottmunc · 10 months ago

Social Media Marketing is becoming the final piece in the puzzle of selling a product. You can spend millions creating awareness of a product through mass marketing but when it comes down to it, people are going to turn to their social networks for opinions and product reviews. Its only after checking with their “tribe” online that people will complete the purchase. Even if people don’t have a tribe of people online, they will do a Google search for the product they are comtemplating on buying. Google will then index social conversations about the product and customers will read these discussions from blogs and Twitter posts before deciding on a purchase. So even if its only a small group of people discussing the product, the ramifications of their discussions can reach millions through google searches and facebook connections.

Justin Goldman · 10 months ago

"Brick & Mortar" businesses launching with technology in mind first to give their value proposition a major competitive advantage over existing competition. An example may be a new cab company launching in a town with an entire online system allowing customers to look on their PC or phone to see current wait times or possibly even bid on a cab to get it quicker or a restaurant opening with no waitresses because they are replaced with touch screens at the table. See Fresh Direct in NYC as a perfect existing example as the early trend setter. Just the idea that technology is going to start to influence the start ups that will have real world locations/services and won't just be a 100% web business like twitter or facebook.

JYT · 10 months ago

2009 is the breakthrough of the Tactile Internet: the possibility to navigate a page without keyboard and mouse.

Multi Touch and acceleration based navigation (Apple and Wii) becoming mainstream in games, phones, tablet (Apple?) or laptops, on large screens and in interactive devices like airline check in and other self service devices.

With this, 2010 could be ready for 3D internet. The possibility to navigate a traditional 2D web page also using its depth side, allowing to display more information (and advertisement) in less real estate. Airlines fares visualized in a cube, beyond the matrix today offered?

zunguri · 10 months ago

A Platypus release for both the desktop and mobile device will be a real game changer. It will bring the concept of cloud storage to the non-nerd and in a way that Google will eventually be able to monetize.

Facebook User · 10 months ago

User Content Creation 2.0 - The first generation has consisted primarily of concrete content such as blogs, photos and videos. The evolution of this are sites that allow kids, teachers, hobbyists and even small businesses to quickly create interactive slides, games, applications and more. These new areas of content creation have been gaining traction over the past couple of years, which is why I started TileStack.com, but in 2009 we will start to see broader mainstream adoption. Related to this, I also think at some point we'll see the educational sector start to adopt interactive content creation as a new way for teachers to reach students and for students to learn 21st century skills.