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16-yr old launches Vye music-sharing site. Another Napster?
You can't infer that there are "strong signs it may stall going forward" just by looking at that graph. In May you would have had to infer that there were "strong signs GOOG won't exist in a few months".
I don't know where GOOG is going and neither do you or anyone else that's involved. We can only have *qualified* opinions, more or less sophisticated than the Goldman Sachs' opinion or that of the guy down the street.
I'll choose more sophisticated than a screenshot of Google Finance.
Full disclosure: I'm long GOOG.
Unless I'm missing something, wouldn't it also facilitate those employees wanting to leave, to just sell them in this auction market and make some bucks rather than having to wait in hope for their options to be any worth 10 years down the lane?
I am surprised how this scheme works though. Does one need to stick around with the company till Jan 08 if I sell options on this market for Jan 08?
Overall this is a visionary move by Google and I am looking forward to how its gonna fare as a retention tool.
the interesting issue which wasn't addressed is what happens if the employee quits, gets fired, dies, etc prior to vesting those options which he sold? where are the shares going to come from when the call comes due?
But it will get easier. I predict that by the end of 2007, the market will begin to see a flow of talent trickling out of Google. It will mostly be the newbie googlers who will realize that they joined a company for the hope of striking it rich - but they will realize that they missed the real boat by about 3 years and are meanwhile missing out on the opportunity to truly make an impact elsewhere.
Boris Epstein
BINC Founder
www.bincsearch.com