DISQUS

anonymous · 1 year ago

Apple has been known to "fluff" numbers and 300M seems a bit high per some envelope math. Assuming 15M unique "devices" (iphone/itouch) in the wild and an 80/20 rule (80% of DLs by 20% of users) this would imply heavy users have downloaded (again downloaded, not including preinstalled ones) 80 apps per device. Bump the devices # to 25M its still 50 per device. Still a bit high and generous given that some of the 2G phones were cannibalized with the 3G release. Just a thought.

MG Siegler · 1 year ago

A fair thought because 300 million is quite a number, but I doubt Apple would lie about that number (especially so loudly with huge ads), there are analytics firms out there that could call them on it if it was way off, and I haven't heard any do that yet.

anonymous · 1 year ago

not the 300M number is wrong, it just might include other stuff. For example, do carriers "download" apps to pre-install? (maybe but not likely). Are updates/new versions counted as a whole app? (unclear but I wouldn't put it past them). And so on.
This is all not to say the iphone isn't wildly successful; it just might be the case that 300M is bit more marketing fodder than not (hey 100M true DLs would make eyes pop too)

Marcelo Calbucci · 1 year ago

Hey MG, I wonder why you ignored Windows Mobile. Sure they don't have a centralized App store, but they've been a Mobile Platform for a long time. I'm pretty sure there are way more than 10,000 Windows Mobile apps out there and certainly way more than 300M downloads.

I'm not a Microsoft or Apple fan-boy, but I get annoyed by the way bloggers like to hide/show information just to make a point.

MG Siegler · 1 year ago

Fair point Marcelo, but I'm just comparing iPhone to Android because both had app stores launch in the relatively same time period so it's easier to compare. Microsoft's stuff has been around forever, so it's hard to compare. But I'll try to get that data (I'm actually sitting next to someone from Microsoft right now :) ).

MG Siegler · 1 year ago

Go an answer for you Marcelo - there are about 18,000 apps available on the web for Windows Mobile devices, according to Microsoft. Not sure about the download numbers overall, might be hard for them to track that since there is no single app store.

Rana June Sobhany · 1 year ago

It's also important to note that there aren't any paid Android apps in the Market yet and this may be a key reason that developers are holding back their releases. I've been wondering where the Android apps are since day one. We're looking into this right now and will let you know as soon as we've concluded our research.

MG Siegler · 1 year ago

Thanks Rana, also an excellent point. One I meant to make as I have in the past. Paid apps should be launching early next year and that will definitely spur development when they can actually, you know, make money off of it :)

Rana June Sobhany · 1 year ago

Hey now! There are other ways to make money on Android platform, you know :)

MG Siegler · 1 year ago

True. ADS!

C. Enrique ortiz · 1 year ago

I agree w/ Rana. Once Android store starts paying, I suspect it will increase? Why, because it boils down to making money! and as such, developers will prioritize...

jERYR · 1 year ago

This article DOES NOT tell the full story ...

Yes you're correct Apple will be more popular than Android for a while but 10k to 462 is misleading

1. the thing that this articles completely misses is that Android has been in the market for 2 months .. while the Iphone has been in the market for MORE THAN TWO YEARS ...

so it's not 5 months vs 2 months ... it's more like 18 months vs 2 months ...

2. The Android Market has 462 FREE APPS .. once the market starts paying for apps .. there will be a lot mroe ... I have personally emailed a few Iphone developers of my interest and so far all of them have replied they're making a similar software for ANdroid... now granted it's only 5 apps.. but I urge others to do the same for apps that are of interest to them

With that said ... Iphone will be more popular than Android after these 18 months but not as bad as this article makes it seem...

MG Siegler · 1 year ago

First of all the iPhone has not been on the market for more than 2 years. The first version was launched in June 2007. It is currently December 2008.

Secondly, the App Store did not launch until July 2008. There were no third-party apps made independently before then.

But yes, the paid vs. free point is valid. BUT while you've emailed a few iPhone developers who said they're making similar software for Android, I've talked to dozens (if not more) who have no current plans to do so.

Certainly, that could change, and I think it will as more (and better) Android phones come out. But right now, the two just don't compare. That is my point.

Curtis · 1 year ago

MG,

You've completely ignored the impact of the installed base of iPhone users. Most iPhone users were satisfied if not very satisfied with their iPhones. Hence if you apply the 80/20 rule you had more than 3 million users that you could target once Apple announced AppStore availability and an SDK for the development community. Android, on the other hand, had an installed base of zero.

MG Siegler · 1 year ago

Good point, but the G1 is expected to have moved 1 million units within the next few weeks, so they have 1 million users and still only 462 apps. 1 million is a big number, yet developers still aren't flocking the android yet is all I'm saying.

Jerry · 1 year ago

i meant to say more than a year... hence the reasons I say 18 months vs 2 months... so that point is still valid.. .just because Apple didnt have an app store does not mean there weren't apps for it... My friend who has an IPhone had plenty of third party apps.. when he jailbroke his phone.. and a lot of these apps have been migrated to the app store..

I can't believe that you cover the IPHONE and you don't know that 3rd party apps existed before the app store..

Windows mobile has not opened SKY MARKET yet.. bu they have plenty of apps... u dont need an app store to have apps made for an OS

iphonedev.in · 1 year ago

By July 2009, we can expect 1 Billion apps download, 25k apps and 30M iphones sold - http://iphonedev.in

Atul · 1 year ago

That's an interesting post, MG. 300M certainly sounds on the higher side.

Is there any breakdown of how many are paid vs. how many free? Any analysis or revenue made from App Store, etc.? Medialets, developers, anybody??

ericlitman · 1 year ago

General ratio of free to paid downloads for developers who have both is between 10x to 20x to 1. We've seen a huge surge in both downloads and activity over the past month on both the free and paid side, and what appears to be a trend toward user comfort paying slightly more for applications.

We're working on a revenue analysis.

Mike · 1 year ago

This is an apples and oranges comparison. It's really hard to compare the two. Aside from the factors mentioned, the iPhone came out for a year before the AppStore launched. That will give the AppStore more momentum than Android's Market. Imagine a fishing casting its while in motion in open waters and another one having its net down and then starts its engine.

What would you think if I say that Andoid has 462 natives apps as compared to 0 apps for the iPhone in their first 2 months?

Cheers,
Owner of a G1 and iPod Touch

Matt · 1 year ago

Something that's also interesting to note is that while the iPhone SDK is free (Ignoring he $100 yearly cost to post stuff to the store), iPhone development is tied to the Mac. Not a big issue for enterprise development, but if you're a hobbiest making free apps, or have no real expectation of making a profit, it matters.

I'm surprised there aren't more apps for Android for this reason alone. It's one of the two reasons I haven't played with the iPhone SDK, myself. The other reason is Apple's draconian management of their app store. Rejecting a (non-malware) app after it's been written, completely barring any distribution of it at all is just evil.