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Does Avatar represent the future of movies? Maybe not
And hi5 in particular was noted as having just rolled out a sitewide virtual currency which all developers can plug into and use - so instead of asking a user to trust that app developer with payment details, users can buy from hi5 but use the currency inside of various applications (and it was implied revenue flows to those applications)
An optimistic viewpoint could envision a facebook currency being the defacto for all 'intra' internet transactions. In that case, years from now, FB could end up with a significant piece of revenue being derived from a type of currency clearinghouse function - something that certainly seems more suited for a Paypal type entity.
Regardless, if one believes in the market generally, there certainly seems to be a huge first mover opportunity for one of the big players on your list. FB's direct contact with the consumers (vs. PP's perhaps more secondary relationship) gives it an opportunity to corner the market fast and early and effectively eliminate the competition (particularly since I'm sure profits would be slim with the market in its infancy).
Also, read at least a little bit of the story of e-gold and you will know more what you are talking about.
In that sense, WoW gold has a headstart on these mainstream players and I'm not sure that Facebook or the like have a universal currency, and all that comes with it, as a goal.
Paypal with them as the middleman and the illusion of an online currency then?
The success or failure line now (who will win this current war) seems to be at the point of converting national currency to digital virtual units. If Facebook has F-money, their web alone will exchange their virtual units to national currency. If HI-5 coins wants an exchange to a USD player, they handle it at their web. What Lisa has discussed here, Optimal Virtual Currency Area, is a central exchange for multiple currencies if I am understanding it correctly. I agree that would be awesome, one base unit, multiple brand names. In this scenario, players from one 'world' who have currency could instantly swap it for another VC to play in the other world.
That's great, we used to have an exchange from e-gold to Pecunix to Webmoney to Liberty Reserve to 1mdc (all digital currencies), the exchanges were automatic and the online connection to do this was easily provided by the issuer, free and super for business. The problem occurs because each of these virtual currencies which is convertible to cash, now has value. If one web gaming world is in Europe, one in UK and one in the US, you will have trouble with users moving 'value' or money through multiple jurisdictions in a matter of seconds.
It's real money that is moving so a crook in the Czech Republic on a proxy pretending to be in the UK, moves his stolen/carded funds (proceeds of a crime) though multiple virtual currencies in multiple jurisdiction and probably multiple names in a matter of only seconds. You have created the perfect Internet money laundering tool. This creates a MASSIVE problem for law enforcement to track bad money through multiple jurisdictions and currencies. The rule now is, if your organization issues the virtual or digital money, YOUR organization is solely responsible for exchanging it into and from national currency to meet KYC rules and prevent money laundering. I can suggest you take a quick look at our August 2008 issue http://www.dgcmagazine.com/BackIssue-html-pages... I reprinted the basic report from the Department of Justice, "Money Laundering in Digital Currencies, June 2008" where they address some of these issues. After that report came out the digital currency companies had to stop providing that automatic ability to exchange currencies. I believe the same may apply to any future open currency area, as long as the digital units have real value. If you can't exchange them for money that is a moot point.
We believe, that digital currency should NOT be controlled by any one government in a specific jurisdiction (USA) however, I don't make the rules and as you can see with the UIGEA for online gambling the DOJ can muscle any web they want, Ref. Second Life closing their casinos.
I think this is what Alex is referring too...
Mark Herpel
Facebook is a natural for this, but we'll have to see how much flexibility is built into the system: if you look at social games (excluding the most basic ones, what I call the 1st generation of social games, which happen to be mostly Mafia Wars-style, with not much in terms of game mechanics), game design informs heavily how currency is managed and used. To start with, there is often a dual currency system, one of which can be bought, and one that can only be earned by playing, and using wisely the two is key to balanced game design. Moreover, more complex games use currency both in the context of the game itself, often linking it to game mechanics (e.g. resource management), and sometimes in the context of a metagame.
As such, to be able to use an external currency in a given game you need either a whole lot of customization to make it fit the game mechanics, or you can leave everything on the dev's side, and provide a solid exchange system that allows for a myriad of variables to be set by the developer.
If FB will provide that, it has a shot to becoming the dominant currency for social gaming... in the West: don't forget that China has a 3B+ USD online gaming market, built on microtransactions, on which local players are dominant. The US has still a long way to go to even approach that.
I would go further and say that FB has a great shot at being not only the currency provider of the social gaming ecosystem, but also the data clearinghouse, which would make ts role even more powerful. I wrote something about it for Casualgaming.biz a few weeks ago... linking it, in case it's of interest: http://www.casualgaming.biz/blog/209/The-case-f...
Thanks for the thoughtful piece. It has taken be a bit to form my thoughts, which turned into a pretty long report, which became a blog post here:
http://nuanceintelligence.com/virtual-currencie...
Briefly, I think you are on the right track, but think these virtual currencies miss some key aspects of social capital that affect the design and relevance of virtual currencies.
If used only as a proxy for dollars and saving the transaction costs of Visa et al, then, yes -- there's a good opportunity here to move a market.
But when virtual currencies move out of the realm of things and into the realm of social interactions, it's important to realize the different between the qualitative and quantitative measures of a person's reputation and role in community. Currency designs that conflate those two will, at the least, become irrelevant, and, at worst, sink the platform upon which they sit.
I'm excited about this intersection between gaming currencies, social currencies and proxy currencies. It's going to be very interesting to watch it play out.
http://www.sworddance.com/blog/2009/07/03/open-...
You will be successful.